The Way I see it

Why I think this is not the bottom and why the economy might not improve in the next 2 yrs:

Approximately 600,000 people are losing their jobs every month. This directly affects the newly unemployed person's ability to pay mortgages and other bills. In addition to the sub prime loans that ended up being bad, these new default mortgages will be a huge burden that will creep into the lower middle class and upper middle class of this country. Revised mortgage rates plan announced by Obama might help someone who has a job and can still make monthly payments once the rates are adjusted, but not the people who lost their jobs and cannot afford any payments, unless they have saved enough money in BANKS to see them through the recession. BANKS (in the form of cash) only because the hardship loan someone can get from their 401K would have already been dwindled to 60-65% of its worth approximately. After considering the by-products like high inflation that will occur during these recession times, one should wonder what a dollar will be worth !

Obama's new budget was targeted as a huge spending bill, but even dumbest of the lot can say that this is pretty conservative, considering the fact that his budget estimates some 8.1% unemployment by the end of the year, while the unemployment rate at the end of February is already up there ! Calculating increase in the unemployment at the rate of 600K/month will be a good exercise for some. His spending plan is based on the estimated 8.1% unemployment and hopefully creating 3.5 million jobs. 3.5 million if created could be too little of a relief to make a huge impact.

I enjoy watching the analysts drawing lines and predicting curves based on assumption / expectations / experience ...?? None of it makes sense, since all the data you can get as a financial analyst is based on historic data and formulae, that use historic data to "predict" future trends. Good luck using those reports. I for one, am frustrated reading through my finance course work and listening through the lectures. Those blaming what the goverment is doing now, should have been proactive when capitalism in the form of banks was failing. Instead they were cherishing the fruits of proxy wealth created by it.

Island in the Sky

Waiting for a second date after 5 years, I woke up to an unusually cold but bright morning in a small town of Utah - "Moab". Surrounded by Canyonlands and the Arches national park, moab is a two faced monster. The rocks of canyonlands stand high and proud in their own "maverick" ways defying the challenging conditions, while the subtle and precariously delicate arches found a niche for themselves, "stubbornly" fighting against gravity and wind for their existence in the Arches national park.

Each of these wonders have a name now. Wonder what the natives americans named these arches in Ute language? Did they also believe in life in rocks, like the Navajo did ?

"Every pilgrimage in the desert is a pilgrimage to self. There is no place to hide and so we are found" - Terry Tempest Wild

Saturday was for the trip to canyonlands where the huge walls of rocks stand thousands of feet high above the sea level. Sulking by the edges of these cliffs is definitely not for the weakest of hearts. Mesa Arch, dead horse point and Grand view point overlook cliffs as high as 8,000 feet ,with some breathtaking view of the formations caused by the lush green rivers over millions of years. Adding to the beauty were the thunderstorms and picture perfect lightning strikes miles away, Capturing which on a film using filters would be a shame to the beauty of the landscape !

For some real taste of adventure, we decided to descent the canyons over our 4x4 on a really narrow and sandy trail along the steeps of the canyon with zero degrees of freedom while hoping from within that it didn't rain. The day ended with a run down the beautifully lit main street of Moab and eagerness to see Arches national park the next day.

Second day was completely for Arches National park. Weather was so unpredictable with rain and shine alternating. Of about 2000 odd arches in this park, only a handful were with in the reach of a day hiker. Each of these arches have a unique identity and a history that dated millions of years. Some of these started as petrified dunes and then ended up as mountains that eventually withered into arches after wind, water and gravity took their toll. At the moment, these fragile structures might give up any moment or could last for another century or two.

Hiking through the miles of rocks in the primitive trail past the Devil's garden to ascent the top of vertical Double " O " arch was the most exciting part. Fear first and then a sense of accomplishment takes over while standing on top of the arch. A breathe of gusty winds take over your senses atop the arch. Noise levels were probably a notch above the standards in a soundproof room up there.

I feel completely in the moment, all the memories and future plans on hold. How simple it is to be happy, I think.

Delicate Arch is probably one of the most amazing creations of nature. The scale and location of the arch, burning under the sun and glowing in the moonlight cannot be anymore perfect. While, hiking up the hill to see the arch could be tedious as the arch itself is carefully hidden till the last turn around the hill, the first glimpse of it brings a huge grin on the hiker's face. It was an hour well spent taking pictures of the arch while I was up there. The silky clouds and the sun fighting over who is more powerful was a spectacle to watch as the shadow of the arch was dancing around. For some, this sight might be exciting, for some it might bring joy, for others it would leave them thinking.

Surprisingly, the descent was equally exciting for me, when I realized that the last leg of my much awaited trip came to an end very successfully. I had a feeling of fulfillment like a kid who gets to finally lay his hands on a candy that was hard fought for. Few hours later, consciously or unconsciously, I mentioned to someone that I was having the best time of my life.

Seriously God! what were you smoking?